The International Air Transport Association has reduced its forecast for air traffic recovery amid a turbulent summer travel season that was interrupted by new COVID-19 outbreaks and quarantine restrictions.
The association officially reduced its full-year passenger traffic forecast for 2020 to be down 66 per cent compared with last year, worse than its previous prediction of a 63 per cent decline year-on-year.
“The improvement that we saw in the summer months has more or less stopped,” IATA chief economist Brian Pearce said.
In August, revenue passenger kilometers were down to 75.3 per cent compared with August 2019, a slight improvement on the 79.5 per cent year-on-year contraction recorded in July.
August capacity (available seat kilometres) was also down 63.8 per cent year-on-year, and load factor dropped 27.2 points to a record seasonal low of just 58.5 per cent.
What little improvement was seen in the summer months was largely driven by domestic markets, which have fared significantly better than international demand, however many are still down significantly when compared with 2019.
Any subtle recovery in air passenger services was brought to an abrupt halt in mid-August, as governments re-introduced restrictions and lockdowns in certain key markets, according to the IATA.
Forward bookings for air travel in the fourth quarter are also down, as passengers have little certainty over future travel conditions.
“The industry is restarting but it looks as though it’s still burning through cash,” Pearce said, noting that losses will continue to mount throughout the rest of 2020.
As such, airlines continue to press governments to abandon travel bans and quarantine requirements, citing these as key factors in the ongoing aviation crisis, and instead opt for rapid COVID-19 testing at airports.
Commenting on the current data, IATA chief executive Alexandre de Juniac said, “August’s disastrous traffic performance puts a cap on the industry’s worst-ever summer season.
“International demand recovery is virtually non-existent and domestic markets in Australia and Japan actually regressed in the face of new outbreaks and travel restrictions.
“A few months ago, we thought that a full-year fall in demand of -63 per cent compared to 2019 was as bad as it could get. With the dismal peak summer travel period behind us, we have revised our expectations downward to -66 per cent.”
