After rumours swelled that Boeing is working on its next mid-sized jet to compete with the Airbus A321neo, suppliers believe that the prospect of a brand-new Boeing aircraft is unlikely to eventuate in the near future.
However, the timeline of future Boeing jet development will be largely defined by how successfully the grounded Boeing 737 MAX regains traction in the market, when it re-enters commercial service in the coming weeks.
The update has come from Boeing engine supplier Safran’s chief executive Philippe Petitcolin, who said that suppliers and leasing companies, all of whom invested heavily in the MAX, are not in support of replacing the jet, despite mounting cancellations.
“We are doing everything with Boeing to put the MAX back in service in the best possible conditions,” he told reporters.
Boeing is hoping to see a rise in demand for new MAX orders once the plane returns to service, due to occur in the next few weeks, in order to recapture some of the market share it lost to European rival Airbus and its increasingly popular A321neo aircraft.
Should airlines stop buying the MAX or fail to reabsorb it into their fleets, there has been some speculation that Boeing may first create a replacement for its out-of-production 757, a slightly larger single-aisle jet that shares a market with the MAX and A321neo family.
It is believed that this could be the beginning point for a design that could eventually pivot to a full replacement for the embattled MAX.
Petitcolin said the 737 MAX was likely to stay in service until 2035, implying the development of a successor would not start until 2027 with pre-marketing starting in 2025, however, if the MAX failed to reassert itself in the market, Boeing could theoretically be tempted to bring that forward to 2022-23.
“The success or otherwise of the return to service of the MAX could – I am speaking hypothetically – influence Boeing’s decision whether to launch a plane earlier,” he said.
A new model is “in the realm of possibilities even if today it is not the solution or option that we consider the most probable”, Petitcolin said.
Meanwhile, Boeing has repeatedly said it is focusing solely on the MAX.
Reuters first reported in April that Boeing had been studying a possible 757 replacement to thwart the A321neo, though plans for this and a potential revamped 767 cargo jet had been placed on a back-burner during the crisis.
A new report by the Wall Street Journal last week suggested Boeing was in early discussions with customers and suppliers regarding a new jet, which again swirled rumours.
However, industry sources are not expecting the new, as yet unnamed jet to hit the market anytime soon.
Meanwhile, Boeing is currently studying refinements for larger MAX variants including the MAX 9, and updates for the MAX 10.
