The International Air Transport Association’s data for cargo industry growth across February 2020 paints a bleak picture for air freight markets.
The general trend is unsurprising to most analysts, given that across February:
- Manufacturing production in China, one of the world’s largest air cargo markets, dropped sharply due to widespread factory closures and travel restrictions;
- Global export orders fell to a historically low level. The global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is in contraction territory, with all major trading nations reporting falling orders; and
- Significant cargo capacity was lost as a result of airlines reducing passenger operations in response to government travel restrictions due to COVID-19, severely impacting global supply chains.
However, the report paints a full picture of the effect of the outbreak on the industry and is cause for optimism in some regions.
Despite dropping significantly in February, World of Aviation reported this week that China’s air cargo sector has bounced back to pre-outbreak levels.
Overall, cargo demand, measured in cargo tonne kilometres (CTKs), shrunk by 9.1 per cent month-on-month when adjusted for seasonal variation, the Lunar New Year, and the leap year.
Cargo capacity, measured in available cargo tonne kilometers (ACTKs), dropped by 4.4 per cent year-on-year in February 2020. This is subject to the same distortions as the non-seasonally adjusted demand numbers.
“The spread of COVID-19 intensified over the month of February, and with it, the impact on air cargo,” said IATA chief Alexandre de Juniac.
“The disruption of global supply chains led to a fall in demand. But the dramatic disruption in passenger traffic resulted in even deeper cuts to cargo capacity. And the industry is struggling to serve remaining demand with the limited capacity available. We only got a first glimpse of this in February.
“Among all the uncertainty in this crisis, one thing is clear—air cargo is vital. It is delivering lifesaving drugs and medical equipment. And it is supporting global supply chains.
“That’s why it is critical for governments to remove any blockers as the industry does all it can to keep the global air cargo network functioning in the crisis and ready for the recovery.”
Airlines in Europe carried the worst declines in year-on-year growth, while North American and APAC carriers experienced more moderate falls. The Middle East, Latin America and Africa were the only regions to record growth in air freight demand year-on-year.
